China: Growth of both exports and imports surged in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

China: Growth of both exports and imports surged in June

Global Markets Research

Asia Insights 14 July 2026

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

China: Growth of both exports and imports Research Analysts

surged in June Asia Economics

Harrington Zhang - NIHKExport growth in USD terms increased to 27.0% y-o-y in June (Consensus: 19.0%; Nomura:

harrington.zhang@nomura.com

16.2%), far above expectations and up sharply from 19.4% in May. Import growth also

+852 2252 2057

rose to 36.0% in June from 27.4% in May, notably above market expectations (Consensus:

Jing Wang - NIHK26.1%; Nomura: 26.2%). As a result, the trade surplus widened further to USD125.6bn in

jing.wang@nomura.com

June from USD105.4bn in May, marking the highest monthly surplus on record.

+852 2252 1011

As we have flagged in recent months, robust semiconductor trade remained the dominant Hannah Liu - NIHK

driver of highly elevated export and import growth in June, with the divergence between hannah.liu@nomura.com

value and volume growth still wide, as chip price increases continued to overwhelm +852 2252 1082

quantity growth. We estimate integrated circuits (ICs) contributed 6.5pp to headline export Ting Lu - NIHK

growth in June. Together with automatic data processing (ADP) equipment, which is also ting.lu@nomura.com

closely linked to the current global AI boom and contributed an additional 2.9pp, AI-related +852 2252 1306

exports accounted for 9.4pp of total export growth. Although the proportional contribution

to total export growth has moderated slightly from the previous two months, chips remain

the absolute primary driver, underscoring the outsized role of the global AI supercycle.

Moreover, price effects continued to play a major role in the growth of both exports and

imports in June.