3Q26: Margin Beat but Enrollment Headwinds Persist

研报英文原文证据摘录

3Q26: Margin Beat but Enrollment Headwinds Persist

Idea

July 15, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | North America Greg Parrish, CFA

Equity Analyst

3Q26: Margin Beat but Greg.Parrish@morganstanley.comToni Kaplan +1 212 761-0156

Toni.Kaplan@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3620

Enrollment Headwinds Persist

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED.N, PXED UN)

What’s Changed Business & Education Services | United States of America

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED.N) From To Stock Rating Overweight

Price Target $46.00 $40.00 Industry View In-Line

Price target $40.00

Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) $34.57

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $1,345

Reaction to earnings 52-Week Range $47.08-23.53

Weakens our thesis In-line Modest revision lower Fiscal Year Ending 08/25 08/26e 08/27e 08/28e

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

EPS ($)** 4.27 4.49 4.58 4.91

consensus EPS

EBITDA ($mm)** 244 253 262 271

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Prior EPS ($)** - 4.62 4.99 5.42

P/E - 7.7 7.6 7.0

Mixed print as light enrollment trends continued, but offset by EPS ($)§ 2.59 4.42 4.86 5.42

better than expected margin leading to adj. EBITDA/EPS beat. Unlessframeworkotherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

Expect execution and valuation gap vs. peers to drive **§ ==ConsensusBased on consensusdata is providedmethodologyby Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

outperformance. Reiterate OW, PT of $46. Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

Key Takeaways Q1 1.25 - 1.38a 1.48 1.36

Q2 0.52 - 0.57a 0.63 0.57

Strong margin in the quarter led to bottom line beat, though enrollment Q3 1.46 - 1.43a 1.45 1.45

headwinds persist.