Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Coca-Cola- Coca-ColaFemsa SAB de CVFemsa(KOFUBL.MX)SAB de CV (KOFUBL.MX)

Potential Catalysts (Dividends), and Reslilent 2026e; OW.

PRICE TARGET M$196.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Our year-end 2027 price target is based on a combination of (i) a two-stage DCF that Catalysts/dividends & resilient 2026e. Amid

considers a MXN WACC of 13.3%, and (ii) a multiples valuation based on a 15.5x 2027 P/E (in- a challenging environment in Mexico, KOF

line with 5-year historical average). should should navigate uncertainty well:

MSe with Recurring EBTIDA margin

M$207.14 expansion despite slow macro and higher

Consensus Price Target Distribution M$195.00 M$226.00 excise taxes in Mexico. Also, we see

MS PT potential catalysts ahead, namely potential

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates extraordinary dividends to address

inefficient capital structure — MSe at ~20%

total shareholder remuneration yield.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

MXN

77% Overweight

M$245.00M$245.00(+36.19%)M$245.00(+36.19%)(+36.19%)

23% Equal-weight

240 0% Underweight

MS Rating

M$196.00M$196.00(+8.96%)M$196.00(+8.96%)(+8.96%)

180 M$179.89M$179.89M$179.89 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

M$123.00M$123.00(-31.62%)M$123.00(-31.62%)(-31.62%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE M$245.00 BASE CASE M$196.00 BEAR CASE M$123.00

16.5x Bull Case EPS (2026) 15.5x Base Case EPS (2027) 12.0x Bear Case EPS (2027)

Stronger volumes in Mexico and margin Moderate declines (volume/margin) in Weaker volumes in 2026 and limited pricing

expansion; Higher LT volumes/prices.