Strong performance despite challenges: Stronger non-trade realizations drive EBITDA beat in 1QFY27; maintain our Buy rating and TP of INR400

研报英文原文证据摘录

Strong performance despite challenges: Stronger non-trade realizations drive EBITDA beat in 1QFY27; maintain our Buy rating and TP of INR400

Global Markets Research

Nuvoco Vistas NUVO.NS NUVOCO IN 14 July 2026

EQUITY: CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

RatingStrong performance despite challenges Remains Buy

Target priceStronger non-trade realizations drive EBITDA beat in Remains INR 400

1QFY27; maintain our Buy rating and TP of INR400

Closing price INR 341 14 July 2026Valuation: Maintain our Buy rating and TP of INR400 (17% implied upside)

We increase our FY27F EBITDA estimate by 5% to INR20bn (from INR19bn), largely on Implied upside +17.3%account of better cost management. We maintain our FY28/29F EBITDA estimates at

INR23bn/INR25bn, which are around 6%/3% higher than Bloomberg consensus Market Cap (USD mn) 1,267.6

estimates. We remain positive on Nuvoco and maintain our TP of INR400 on account of ADT (USD mn) 2.1

structural factors we highlighted in our earlier report (link). The stock currently trades at

8.6x one-year-forward EV/EBITDA.

Relative performance chartRead through: Nuvoco’s higher realizations signal upside risk to sector estimates

Nuvoco’s reported cement realizations came in 7% higher q-q, 4% above our estimate.

Our trade channel checks suggest a 3% q-q increase in prices; however, management

highlighted a more significant uptick in non-trade realizations for 1QFY27. While non-trade

volumes account for roughly 30% of the industry mix, the magnitude of the non-trade

pricing improvement (INR20/bag in the Eastern region) suggests overall sector

realizations may have been meaningfully stronger than our previous estimate. Against this

backdrop, we see upside risk to earnings for companies, in particular those concentrated

in the Eastern region.