European Chemical Distribution

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European Chemical Distribution

European Chemical Distribution UBS Research

SUBSECTOR SNAPSHOT

Figure 2: We forecast average sector organic growth of Figure 3: We expect rising inflation and supply stress to

+2.5% y/y in FY'26 overall, with a +ve top-line inflection in support distributor pricing power, seeing a +3% average

Q2'26e across companies tailwind to GP/unit in FY'26e (and a return to c1% volume

growth on average in Q2-Q4'26e)

in Q2 26e across companies rage tailwind to GP/unit in FY 26e

of + y str

rowth suppl

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orga ation

infl

ector

ing

ge s

ct ris

vera

We expe

cast a ess t o sup port distr ibuto r pri cing power , seei ng a + 3% ave

We fore

(and a return to c1% volume growth on average in Q 2.5% y/y i n FY 26 ov erall , wit h a + ve to p-line infle ction

2-Q4 26e)

Source: Company data, UBS estimates Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 4: The sector has been carefully controlling LFL costs Figure 5: We expect conversion margins to see some

in a weak environment (although BNR has more to deliver stabilisation/uplift in FY'26e, as higher GP/unit drops

on savings given the extent of historical investments for through to profitability

its now-shelved separation plans)

L costs in a weak environme some stabilisation/uplift in FY 26e

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Source:Companyntdata,(althoughUBS estimatesB NR has mor e to deliver Source:Company ,data,as higherUBS GPestimates /unit drop s through to

Figure 6: UBSe vs. consensus - we are most above on BNR, Figure 7: We see valuation as most attractive at IMCD and

but we believe cons here is stale for recent results beat DKSH

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