First Read Akzo Nobel Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition proposal for Deco

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Akzo Nobel Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition proposal for Deco

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesAkzo Nobel

Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition Netherlands

proposal for Deco Chemicals, Specialty

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target €65.00

What's happened?

Akzo disclosed this morning (here) that it had received multiple conditional, non-binding

approaches from Nippon Paint for its Deco business at an indicative €7.5bn EV, although Price (10 Jul 2026) €57.40

management rejected the proposal on valuation grounds and reiterated its support for RIC: AKZO.AS BBG: AKZA NA

the Axalta merger. In terms of valuation, our SOTP values Decorative Paints at ~10x EV/

Trading data and key metrics

EBITDA (EV ~€6.6bn), based on peers Nippon Paint (~9x) and PPG (~11x). The implied

valuation from Nippon's proposal is ~11x Visible Alpha consensus 2026 EBITDA, 52-wk range €66.44-47.30

suggesting a modest premium to our current valuation. This may not be enough to look Market cap. €9.83b/US$11.2b

compelling at first glance, but is potentially an interesting starting point for a business Shares o/s 171m (ORD)

that increasingly appears outside Akzo's long-term strategic direction. That said, the Free float 100%

timing looks complicated given the ongoing Axalta merger. Avg. daily volume ('000) 746

Avg. daily value (m) €42.4

Are there meaningful synergies between Coatings and Deco? Common s/h equity (12/26E) €4.48b

Historically, management has indicated limited overlap between the two businesses. P/BV (12/26E) 2.2x

Deco serves DIY and professional painter markets, while Coatings is focused on more Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.2x

technical industrial end-markets. The businesses have different customers, routes to

EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)