China Smartphone Sector: UBS Evidence Lab: Prefer Apple suppliers with growing exposure to AI opportunities

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China Smartphone Sector: UBS Evidence Lab: Prefer Apple suppliers with growing exposure to AI opportunities

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China Smartphone Sector Equities

ChinaUBS Evidence Lab: Prefer Apple suppliers with

growing exposure to AI opportunities Technology

Jimmy Yu

Analyst

jimmy.yu@ubs.com

Inflection not in sight, but sector polarization could limit downside +86-21-3866 8880

UBS models global smartphone sell-in to decline 10% YoY in 2026E, but has raised Nicolas Gaudois

Apple units to +9% YoY, offering downside protection for Apple suppliers (Link) as Analyst

DRAM/NAND upcycle extends to Q228/Q427E, with memory BoM cost at 40%/59% of nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

flagship/mid-to-low-end models by 4Q27E. Moreover, Counterpoint sell-through data +65-6495 5148

shows China Android OEM units down 11% YoY in 5M26, but Apple up 8% YoY. UBS Edward Liu

Evidence Lab's 2Q26 Smartphone Survey reveals 12M forward purchase intent as softer Analyst

overall, but higher YoY for iPhones. We cut our Android 2026 unit forecasts, with edward.liu@ubs.com

Transsion at 77m (-21% YoY) and Xiaomi at 129m (-22% YoY). +852-3712 3981

David Chow

Content value/share gains support near-term growth in a stagnant market Associate Analyst

We favour Apple suppliers as content value/share gains offset weak demand and david.chow@ubs.com

improve product mix. 1) Lens Tech: foldable content (US$120 ASP) in 2026 + glass and +852-3712 3512

metal content upgrades in 2027; 2) Luxshare: higher ASP of top/bottom module in Pro/

Pro Max/Foldable models in 2026, assembly share gain toward 40-45% in 5 years; 3)

AAC: vapor chamber (VC) upgrade in 2026, adoption in iPad/Macbook in 3 years and

potential acoustic upgrade in 2027; 4) Transsion: share gains in the low-to-mid-end