ArgeBev Quarterly Tracker: Beverage Weakness Deepens in 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

ArgeBev Quarterly Tracker: Beverage Weakness Deepens in 2Q26

Global Research

13 July 2026ab by Powered Lab Evidence UBS YES

LatAm Beverages Equities

Latin AmericaArgeBev Quarterly Tracker: Beverage

Weakness Deepens in 2Q26 Food & Beverage

Rodrigo Alcantara

Analyst

rodrigo.alcantara@ubs.com

Argentina: Broad-Based Volume Pressure Persists +55-11-2767 6324

Argentina’s macroeconomic backdrop remained weak in 2Q26, with no meaningful Sanjeet Aujla

improvement versus 1Q26 and consumer confidence declining 7.1% y/y during the Analyst

quarter. Beverage industry indicators also remained soft, with production falling sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

4.6% y/y in April–May and 2.5% y/y YTD. Based on our conversations with companies +44-20-7567 4529

and channel checks, we believe that beer industry volumes deteriorated further, Kevin Zavala

while non-alcoholic beverage volumes also declined at a faster rate than in 1Q26 Associate Analyst

but continued to outperform beer. We also note that the industry faced a kevin.zavala@ubs.com

demanding comparison base following its solid performance in 1H25. Finally, while +55-11-2767 6176

the world cup likely supported beverage consumption, we believe the tailwind was

modest. Against this backdrop, our volume estimates by company ahead of the 2Q26

print are:

Ambev: we forecast LAS volumes to decline 1.0% y/y, versus Bloomberg

consensus of 0.0% y/y, reflecting continued weakness in Argentina’s beer

industry, ongoing social unrest in Bolivia, and soft performance in Chile. Based

on our conversations with the company and channel checks, we believe risks

to our estimate remain skewed to the downside.

Andina: we forecast volumes to decline 5.0% y/y, versus consensus of 0.4% y/

y, driven by the weak beverage environment and a continuation of the market-