Machinery, Building Materials: Q2 Preview construction vs. ag: Different market narratives playing out in slow motion

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Machinery, Building Materials: Q2 Preview construction vs. ag: Different market narratives playing out in slow motion

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

Machinery, Building Materials Equities

AmericasQ2 Preview construction vs. ag: Different market

narratives playing out in slow motion Industrial

Steven Fisher, CFA

Analyst

steven.fisher@ubs.com

Construction vs. Ag: Acceleration in construction vs. more gradual recovery in +1-212-713 8634

ag

Avinatan Jaroslawicz

We preview construction and agriculture machinery: CAT, OSK, and EQPT on the Analyst

construction side (URI, which we previewed earlier, is also included) and DE, AGCO, and avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

CNH on the ag side. +1-212-713 1405

It is well understood that fundamentals in construction are much better than in ag. Judah Aronovitz

Construction spending is going through a quarters long bottoming process with Associate Analyst

judah.aronovitz@ubs.com

starts accelerating. Ag is also experiencing an extended bottoming process, but

+1-212-713-4881

rather than accelerating, the recovery in 2027 now looks to be more gradual.

Lauren Sullivan

This is the last quarter of tough comps on Liberation Day cost; from Q3 forward, Associate Analyst

price / cost comparisons should be easier, reducing margin headwinds. lauren.sullivan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8230

Construction: Looking to gauge dealer inventory build and rental capex

We expect companies to have a positive message on construction machinery. We

expect another quarter of inventory build at CAT (but smaller than in Q1). EQPT

already announced a capex guidance raise, and we think URI could do the same

(either in Q2 or Q3). We expect ~1x book/bill in OSK's Access segment (5+ yr avg).

Agriculture: The quarter where early orders matter; leaning to the downside