Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 15 July 2026 – Middle East, Woolworths, Travel

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Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 15 July 2026 – Middle East, Woolworths, Travel

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 15 July 2026 – Middle

East, Woolworths, Travel

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Resumption of Middle East conflict clouding the outlook. While it would bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

have been optimistic for investors to expect the peace deal to hold indefinitely, Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

the modest pace at which oil, refining, FX and interest rate expectations are christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

responding is interesting. Brent crude pricing has increased from US$72/bbl on J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

6 July to US$85/bbl, still well below the April/May peaks of >US$110/bbl;

Crack spreads have stepped back up by a similar proportion, but again are well

below prior peaks. What was a diminished inflation outlook now has some

upside risk, however futures market pricing for the RBA cash rate now stands

at ~15bps priced by November, implying ~62% chance of a rate hike, up from

~11bps/43% chance of a hike before the re-escalation. We continue to expect

the bar to be high for rate cuts to come back into the conversation. The

resilience of the consumer has been a surprise to many through this conflict, in

addition to rate hikes and a cautious budget, which we expect to continue.

• Woolworths launches Ooshies collectible program today. Woolworths had

seen success in previous years with Ooshies (Lion King in 2019 and Disney in

2020) and will be rotating away from the less effective discs and bricks

promotions in recent years. While it is difficult to predict individual collectible