Lottomatica: Preview: Q2 revs/EBITDA down 1-2% on unfavourable April payout; FY estimates and PT unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lottomatica: Preview: Q2 revs/EBITDA down 1-2% on unfavourable April payout; FY estimates and PT unchanged

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

15 July 2026

Lottomatica Overweight

LTMC.MI, LTMC IM

Preview: Q2 revs/EBITDA down 1-2% on unfavourable Price (14 Jul 26):€25.52

April payout; FY estimates and PT unchanged Price Target (Dec-27):€33.50

We preview Lottomatica ahead of its Q2 results (due 30th July), following the recent European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACrelease of June industry data (tracker here) and our conversation with the company. Estelle Weingrod

We lower our Q2 NGR and EBITDA estimates by LSD % reflecting an (44-20) 7742-8502

unfavourable April payout that weighed on the Sports Franchise (not new news), estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

while keeping Online and Gaming Franchise estimates broadly unchanged. As a J.P. Morgan Securities plc

result, our Q2 NGR and EBITDA estimates now come in at €579m and €228m, Karan Puri

respectively – broadly in-line with company consensus. Our FY 26 estimates are (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

kept unchanged, with both NGR and EBITDA standing at the mid-point of the J.P. Morgan Securities plc

company's guidance.

Avni Garg

(91-22) 6157-3431

The key moving parts for Q2 are as follows (Tables 1-2): avni.garg@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• We continue to model Online NGR growth of ~16% (on ~15% GGR growth,

in-line with our tracker), with EBITDA margin modelled at 57.5% (stable q/q). Specialist Sales contact details:

Within Online, our tracker indicates a Q2 iGaming GGR growth of ~17.5% and Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

OSB GGR growth of ~9.5% (ex virtuals), with the latter driven by favourable European Consumer

sports results across May-June (with April unfavourable). (44-20) 3493-3709