Recent Correction Overdone, Earnings Growth on Track; Upgrade H-share to OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Recent Correction Overdone, Earnings Growth on Track; Upgrade H-share to OW

Idea

July 14, 2026 10:47 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MYangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd | Asia Andy Meng, CFA

Pacific Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7689

Betty Chen

Research AssociateRecent Correction Overdone, Betty.H.Chen@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7213

Earnings Growth on Track;

Upgrade H-share to OW

What’s Changed Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK, 6869

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) From To HK)

Rating Equal-weight Overweight Greater China Technology Hardware | China

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Reaction to earnings Price target HK$230.00

Up/downside to price target (%) 49

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision lower Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) HK$153.90

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month 52-Week Range HK$305.00-18.94

consensus EPS Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 350

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb209,131.9

EV, curr (mn) Rmb213,306.2

YOFC-H has fallen ~50% since the peak in June, yet the earnings Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$3,062

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

trajectory underpinned by the AI-driven optical fiber super-cycle

EPS (Rmb)** 1.0 9.1 15.4 13.8

is unchanged. We believe the de-rating has created a compelling EPS (Rmb)§ 1.1 6.8 10.6 12.2

Revenue, net (Rmb mn) 14,252.127,387.634,486.640,004.4

entry point. EBITDA (Rmb mn) 2,792.710,131.115,187.713,964.1

ModelWare net inc 813.7 7,506.712,730.311,435.2

(Rmb mn)

Key Takeaways P/E 47.3 14.7 8.7 9.6

P/BV 2.2 4.4 3.1 2.6

YOFC's positive profit alert announced July 14 suggests 2Q26 earnings at Rmb1.9- RNOA (%) 6.1 30.1 36.7 29.7