Updating Estimates and PT: Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica S | Latin America

研报英文原文证据摘录

Updating Estimates and PT: Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica S | Latin America

Update

July 14, 2026 10:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+MEcorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica S | Latin Jens Spiess, CFA

America Equity Analyst

Jens.Spiess@morganstanley.com +52 55 5282-6614

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Updating Estimates and PT Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research Associate

What’s Changed Joao.Pedro.Franco.Dos.Santos@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9524

Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica S (ECOR3.SA) From To Gustavo Soares

Price Target R$10.00 R$9.00 Research Associate

Gustavo.Soares@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6075

We remain EW the stock with a YE26 PT of R$9.0/sh (vs. R Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica S (ECOR3.SA,

$10.0/sh previously). ECOR3 BZ)

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure | Brazil

We are updating our estimates following 1Q26 results as we are (i) fine-tuning our Stock Rating Equal-weight

traffic assumptions based on pre-reported data and (ii) marking to market our macro Industry View In-Line

Price target R$9.00

assumptions. We now forecast EBITDA of R$5,642m in 2026 (-1% vs. previous Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) R$7.66

forecast), R$6,192m in 2027 (unchanged), R$6,662m in 2028 (unchanged) and R Mkt cap, curr (mm) R$5,328

52-Week Range R$11.93-6.00

$7,230m in 2029 (unchanged). Our new EPS estimates are R$0.48 in 2026, R$1.07 Avg daily trading value (mm) US$8.8

in 2027, R$1.16 in 2028 and R$1.22 in 2029. Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Sales / Revenue (R$ 11,521 11,383 12,417 11,594

Investment thesis: We remain EW ECOR despite improved risk reward profile. We mm)**

expect ECOR's comparable traffic to increase 2.4% in 2026. However, we prefer to EBITDA (R$ mm)** 5,571 5,642 6,192 6,662