Aker Solutions: Stronger FY26 Outlook, but Investment Case Remains Balanced

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aker Solutions: Stronger FY26 Outlook, but Investment Case Remains Balanced

5.60 6.03 7.7%

and order-intake moderation following exceptionally strong 1Q26 Life Cycle Adj. EPS - 27E (Nkr) 3.99 4.68 17.2%

awards.

Style Exposure

• Upside risk to new 2026 guidance. AKSO enters 2H with NOK 24.6B of

backlog scheduled for execution in 2026, while 1H revenue of NOK 26.2B

already implies ~NOK 50.8B of FY revenue before allowing for additional

order intake, growth on existing contracts, or other short-cycle activity. In our

view, this effectively secures the lower end of the new NOK50-55B range and

suggests the midpoint retains a degree of conservatism. The ~7.5% margin

target also appears achievable in our view, with 1H26 underlying margins of

7.8% already above guidance and Renewables and Field Development activity

expected to remain broadly stable in 2H. Additionally, mgmt discussed

ongoing commercial negotiations on legacy lump sum contracts, providing a

further source of potential upside, albeit with uncertain timing and magnitude.

We now model FY26 margins ex-OneSubsea of 7.9%, above the newly raised

guidance of 7.5%, and revenues of NOK 53.7B (vs. guidance of NOK 50-55B).

• Life Cycle is emerging as a durable, incentive-supported earnings base.

Management indicated that the ~NOK 15B revenue level in 2026 should

remain sustainable into 2027, supported by the successful renewal of all five

frame agreements tendered over the past 12 months, broader scope and

responsibility across several contracts, and a robust backlog of NOK 42B

(~NOK 80B with option periods included). While ongoing efficiency

programs may reduce billable hours, AKSO expects this to be offset by higher

scope and activity, with lower customer costs also improving project