PCs and Servers: Inference extends the general server upcycle, PCs still fragile

研报英文原文证据摘录

PCs and Servers: Inference extends the general server upcycle, PCs still fragile

Albert Hung AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(886-2) 2725-9875 15 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

albert.hung@jpmchase.com

Key changes to our PC and server estimates

We have updated our global PC and server model; key highlights are below:

• We raise our 2026/27 PC shipment forecasts (including Chromebooks) by ~2% to a

7.6% YoY decline /1.6% YoY growth to factor in better-than-expected 2H25/1H26

PC shipments and better-than-feared PC end demand.

• We remain cautious on the 2H26 PC demand outlook and expect a 3% shipment

decline (HoH) due to the negative price elasticity from memory cost hikes.

• We expect a more significant memory impact in the mainstream consumer PC

segment. We also expect a weakening in commercial PC demand into 2H26 due

to the late Win10 replacement cycle.

• We forecast a 14%/4% decline for consumer/commercial PC shipments (vs. our

previous estimates of a 10%/7% decline) for 2026, followed by 5% growth/

flattish consumer/commercial PC shipment trends in 2027.

• We expect a 12% Chromebook shipment decline in 2026 (vs -12% previously)

due to a high base in 2025 and muted replacement demand.

• We increase our server shipment forecast to 22% YoY growth in 2026 (from 15%

growth previously) mainly due to stronger-than-expected US CSP server demand

(both AI and non-AI server demand).

• Our research indicates ~40% server shipment demand this year, which implies

an order backlog that will carry over into next year due to supply constraints.

• We anticipate an accelerating server shipment growth of 25% for 2027 (vs. previous

estimates of +8%), driven by robust server demand and order backlog from 2026.

• We expect sustained server demand into 2028-29 with double digit shipment CAGR

(vs.