Hess Midstream LP: Thoughts into 2Q26; Quiet Quarter Ahead; Bakken Activity in Focus for Longer Term

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hess Midstream LP: Thoughts into 2Q26; Quiet Quarter Ahead; Bakken Activity in Focus for Longer Term

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

HESM’s integrated Bakken footprint provides a strategic

advantage, with exposure to both north of and south of the river.

Moreover, HESM possesses solid long-term, fee-based

contracts underpinned by MVCs, driving notable stability.

However, we view EBITDA guidance, periodic repurchase

agreements and consistent dividend increases (+5% through

2028, even at MVC levels) as more baked into the current

valuation and, as such, see a balanced risk/reward proposition at

this juncture.

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Valuation Abs 13.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0%

Rel -5.4% 1.6% -8.2% -29.3% We establish a Dec 2027 price target of $39/share (versus $37/

share Dec 2026 PT), utilizing a blended DCF and EV/EBITDACompany Data

approach. Our DCF valuation assumes a 10.0% discount rate

Shares O/S (mn) 208

52-week range ($) 44.14-31.63 and 7.0% terminal decline, implying a value of ~$36/share. Our

Market cap ($ mn) 8,143.39 EV/EBITDA valuation employs a 9x target multiple on 2028e

Exchange rate 1.00 EBITDA and implies a ~$41/share value. The EV/EBITDA

Free float (%) 99.5%

3M ADV (mn) 1.89 multiple, terminal growth rate and required rate of return are

3M ADV ($ mn) 72.7 based on the aforementioned factors, leverage/liquidity risk,

Volatility (90 Day) 23 distribution coverage outlook, volumetric/recontracting risk,

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 0|5|2 commodity/marketing risk, take-or-pay contract profile, and

other factors.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E