Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – ICG PLC (ICGIN.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Mar 2026 Mar 2027e Mar 2028e Mar 2029e

Group AUM ($bn) (£, bn) 65.4 66.9 76.2 79.8

Blended Mgmt Fee margin (bps) 98.0 100.9 98.0 236.3

FMC PBT (£m) (£, mn) 589.0 519.2 533.1 605.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Stronger fundraising in secular areas - private RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

credit and secondaries Deal activity picks up, leading to faster 178.9 Organic growth leveraging on balance sheet deployment/realisations EPS

seeding strategies Better fundraising pace boosted by seeding of (p) 144.0 191.7

Investment and realisation (exit) environment new strategies and LPs penetration 172.0

LPs penetration and expansion across Benign credit outcome

geographies

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE DPS

84.4 100.4

Concerns around balance sheet exposure and (p)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 90.9 credit cycle

0-10% India Slower deployment; poor investment

0-10% Japan performance Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

0-10% Mainland China Challenging capital markets backdrop from Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

0-10% UK higher rates delays exits & strategic/deal-driven

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland asset flows 10-20% China and India Regulatory headwinds

20-30% North America

40-50% Europe ex UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 76.4%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 18.6%

1/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

MOST Horizon exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short