Dakota Data Center Story Accelerates with New ESA, Bakken East Opportunities

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dakota Data Center Story Accelerates with New ESA, Bakken East Opportunities

tive margin than

the existing Ellendale contracts;we give partial credit in higher earned ROEs in ND (passing into the

sharing band) but still see upside to our estimates. Exhibit 1 - Current Price Gives Little Value to

Bakken East

Weaker 1H points to bottom half of FY26 range. MDU is in the unenviable position of needing $30

favorable weather to help restock O&M levers, but mild weather conditions persist. Without weather $25 BakkenEast,

normalization at key utilities like Idaho gas or the scale to offset in other jurisdictions, MDU stands as $6.74

$20

potentially the most weather sensitive name in our coverage. We reduce our FY26 EPS to 95¢ (below Pipeline,

the 97¢ guidance midpoint) and expect MDU could address guidance on the 2Q26 call. Multiple $15 $8.18 Current

large ESAs ramping should reduce MDU's future weather sensitivity. $10 $5.02Gas, $21.32Price,

$5 Electric,

Bakken East likely a catalyst yet again with 2Q26 reporting. Mgmt's update is likely to touch $7.60

on progress of precedent agreements (~40% as of 1Q), updated pipeline capacity and capex, $0 JEFe SOTP Current Price

next steps to prepare for FERC Form 7c filing, and potential financing options. Investors expect .Source: Jefferies Research, Factset

a significant step-up in precedent agreements - we think the bogey at this point could be 60-75%

subscribed. We find Bakken East upside to be compelling and highly visible given stakeholder

cooperation. Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst

+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.com

Generally, MDU is a high-upside single-large-project story that benefits in both EPS growth and Paul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst

positive mix shift over time.