NS Group (471A): Earnings model update

研报英文原文证据摘录

NS Group (471A): Earnings model update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 July 2026

NS Group (471A) Overweight

471A.T, 471A JP

Earnings model update Price (14 Jul 26):¥1,520

Price Target (Dec-27):¥1,800

We revise our earnings forecasts based on NS Group’s results through 1Q FY2026. Japan Equity Research

We maintain our price target through December 2027 (previously through

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

December 2026) of ¥1,800 and our Overweight rating. Bain Capital was initially Financials

a major shareholder, and the sale of its entire shareholding on May 29 has AC Koki Sato

eliminated the risk of additional deterioration in share supply/demand. We

(81-3) 6736-8609

recommend noting that new guarantee contract volume was somewhat weak in 1Q koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

FY2026, but we believe the rent guarantee service itself is relatively resilient Yuka Azami

against inflation, and we still believe NS Group is undervalued in P/E and dividend (81-3) 6736-8619

yield terms. yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Overview of our forecasts: We forecast net profit of ¥7.9 billion in FY2026

(guidance is also ¥7.9 billion), followed by 9% YoY growth to ¥8.6 billion in

FY2027 and 11% YoY growth to ¥9.6 billion in FY2028. For our FY2026 Key Changes (FYE Dec)

forecast, we slightly lower our outlook for new residential and commercial Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 26E (¥) 105.22 148.27 40.9%

guarantee contract volume based on 1Q results, but we expect operating profit Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 124.47 166.87 34.1%

and adjusted EBITDA to slightly beat guidance due to higher average rents and

cost control. However, we forecast net profit in line with guidance because we Style Exposure

raise our estimate of interest expenses related to leveraged buyout (LBO) loans