Tenaris SA: 2Q26 Preview: Moving in a Positive Direction as Volumes and Pricing Inflect Higher in 2H26

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Tenaris SA: 2Q26 Preview: Moving in a Positive Direction as Volumes and Pricing Inflect Higher in 2H26

,947 3,025 2.6%

Across the U.S., TS notes seamless market tightness, as the company's Bay City Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

facility is fully booked and only modest spare capacity remains in Pennsylvania, Adj. EPS ($)

which is largely reserved for its core clients given that 95% of U.S. sales are via Rig 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 0.89 0.97A 0.85

Direct. While the Majors and Public NAM E&Ps have maintained their capex Q2 0.93 0.70 0.87

discipline, the company is nonetheless encouraged by the rising rig counts by Q3 0.72 0.81 0.79

Privates. The welded market carries more available capacity, but it continues to Q4 0.79 0.86 0.89

suffer from the wide differential between U.S. HRC ($1,200) and international FY 3.34 3.34 3.40

HRC (~$600-650), which allows importers from Korea and Taiwan to make Style Exposure

money even against a 50% tariff. During our conference (see link), the company

noted the status of the antidumping case against Taiwan, Austria, and the UAE,

with Taiwan the primary target, where it expects preliminary determinations in

September and November and a final determination between late 1Q27 and 2Q27.

Regionally, the picture is mixed but broadly constructive, as Mexico will likely

remain flattish through the rest of 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027, and

continued weakness in the North Sea outside of Norway. On the other hand, activity

continues to increase in Argentina, which should provide tailwinds over the

balance of the year and into 2027 from higher drilling activity and pipeline

infrastructure projects.

The company expects its Suriname facility to start up this year and support Total