First Quantum Minerals Ltd: Minister’s ‘year-end’ comment on Cobre Panama recommendation more nuanced than initial headlines suggest; stay Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Quantum Minerals Ltd: Minister’s ‘year-end’ comment on Cobre Panama recommendation more nuanced than initial headlines suggest; stay Neutral

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

14 July 2026

First Quantum Minerals Ltd

Minister’s ‘year-end’ comment on Cobre Panama Neutral

recommendation more nuanced than initial headlines FM.TO, FM CN

suggest; stay Neutral Price (13 Jul 26):C$36.36

Price Target (Dec-27):C$44.00

European Metals, Mining & Steel

Patrick Jones AC

(44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Our Take: Yesterday, the inter-agency task force charged with determining the Dominic O'Kane

(44-20) 7742-6729

future of FQM’s suspended Cobre Panama mine held a press conference. News dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

outlets reported that Panamanian Minister for Economy & Finance Felipe J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Chapman indicated that the task force could present Panamanian President Mulino Rosie Jia

with a recommendation by year end (link). Subsequently, FQM shares closed down (44-20) 3493-7448

8% last night (vs peers down 2-3%). However, the transcript of the conference rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

indicates a more nuanced answer, with the minister also stating they aimed to reach J.P. Morgan Securities plc

a recommendation ‘as soon as possible’ (full quote of the minister’s response Varun Bhattad

below). We had broadly assumed a year-end timeline for reaching an agreement to (91-22) 6157-5027

restart the mine and, thus, first production (beyond stockpiled ore processing) by varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Q3’27 (assuming a six-month timeframe from formal agreement to ramp up).

Anna Antonova, CFA

Thus, we forecast Cobre Panama copper output of ~154kt in 2027 (Bloomberg

(971) 4428-1766

consensus: ~198kt).