China: Trade resilient, but hard to sustain growth alone

研报英文原文证据摘录

China: Trade resilient, but hard to sustain growth alone

Feng Zhu Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N(852) 2800 1745 14 July 2026

feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com

Resilient trade, rising external fault lines

External risks are becoming more clustered. Trade frictions with the US, Europe and ASEAN

are likely to intensify around EVs, batteries, solar, mature-node semiconductors, green

products and possible transshipment. Tariffs, local-content rules and anti-subsidy actions

may not trigger an immediate export rollover, but they raise the cost of relying on external

absorption. The AI cycle remains supportive, but concentration risk is rising: a setback in AI

capex, tighter technology controls or weaker volume demand could hit the main source of

recent export resilience.

Hormuz risk is the second key external shock. US-Iran tensions have re-escalated around the

Strait of Hormuz: after US strikes resumed on July 7, Trump notified Congress on July 10

under the War Powers framework, starting a new 60-day window for military operations

without congressional authorization. Renewed attacks on commercial shipping near Omani

waters and a proposed 20% “protection fee” on cargo through the strait have raised freight,

insurance and energy-price risks. The strait is not closed, but the risk of disruption remains

high. For China, the risks are higher crude, LNG and shipping costs, and weaker global goods

demand if energy prices stay elevated.

We expect trade to cushion the slowdown, but it cannot deliver reflation on its own. June trade

data indicate that activity should be less weak than in April–May, yet the growth impulse still

comes mainly from external demand, AI/electronics, trade rerouting and policy-supported

production.