Expecting Guidance Upgrade Cycle to Continue & Baking in Higher Rebates

研报英文原文证据摘录

Expecting Guidance Upgrade Cycle to Continue & Baking in Higher Rebates

% below cons EBIT for 2027E.

Neffy Phase II in acute flares could provide mid-s.d.% upside: Investors have yet to attribute

value to the neffy (nasal adrenaline) opportunity to treat acute flares of chronic spontaneous

urticaria (hives), for which ALK has rights in key EU and Canadian markets, despite the potential

to double the asset's commercial opportunity, in our view. Phase IIb interim data from partner

around 4Q26E should further de-risk and increase investor interest in the indication (JEFe c.

$400m peak sales). Positive results could provide up to mid-s.d.% stock upside.

House dust mite tablet opportunity in China also remains overlooked: Following recent

partnership with local distributor GenSci, we see potential for $500+m peak in-market house

dust mite tablet sales, resulting in JEFe c.$190m peak royalties to ALK. China represents a

significant market opportunity given that some 100m patients are sensitive to house dust

mites, with potential Phase III results around end-2026E/early-2027E to enable launch by

2028E.

Retain Buy: Our optimism for continued momentum is driven by: (1) Our +14.5% 2027-2030E

CER Sales CAGR, above cons, underpinned by continued paeds tablet launch strength and

initial contributions from new growth opportunities; (2) Confidence in the peanut allergy tablet

as a blockbuster opportunity, with potential to take a platform approach to food allergy

to replicate successes with respiratory allergies; and (3) Belief that the long-term growth

trajectory of ALK is undervalued given neffy in CSU acute flares and house dust mite tablet

launch in China are both overlooked, with our top-line forecasts 10+% ahead of both cons top-

line profits forecasts 2030E+.