Tyson Foods: 3Q26 Preview – Expectations Seem Low Enough for a Solid Quarter to Moo-ve the Shares Higher

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tyson Foods: 3Q26 Preview – Expectations Seem Low Enough for a Solid Quarter to Moo-ve the Shares Higher

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Tyson Foods Neutral

TSN, TSN US

3Q26 Preview – Expectations Seem Low Enough for a Price (13 Jul 26):$57.92

Solid Quarter to Moo-ve the Shares Higher ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$65.00 Prior (Dec-26):$71.00

Tyson (TSN – Neutral) is likely to report fiscal 3Q26 (June) on Monday, August

3. We model $0.02 of EPS upside (less than has been the norm during TSN’s 11- Food Producers & Retailers

quarter streak of EPS beats), with another tough quarter for Beef more than offset Thomas Palmer, CFA AC

by upside elsewhere, especially Chicken. We think a guidance reiteration is likely, (1-212) 622-5582

with Chicken and Prepared Foods trending toward the high end of their ranges thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

offset by downside in Beef. Normally, we might not think of this as being a

particularly favorable setup for TSN (more substantial beat-and-raise quarters

have been more common lately). But expectations seem a bit lower given the stock Key Changes (FYE Sep)

price weakness over the past couple months, and there is arguably a level of Prev Cur Δ

downside protection, with the shares trading at just 1.1x price to book. That said, Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 4.06 4.14 2.1%

earnings and share price upside could be capped until Beef results more sustainably Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 4.40 4.21 -4.2%

improve, which could be multiple years out given ongoing supply declines and the

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Sep)

slow herd rebuild.

Adj. EPS ($)

• Updating estimates. We now model 3Q upside but also more enduring margin Q1 2025A1.14 2026E0.97A 2027E1.00

weakness in Beef than we did previously.