Carvana Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 EPS Preview: See Modest 2Q Beat, Driven by Delayed Price Acceleration; Return to EBITDA/Unit Growth in 2H26 the Key Watch Item; OW, $93 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Carvana Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 EPS Preview: See Modest 2Q Beat, Driven by Delayed Price Acceleration; Return to EBITDA/Unit Growth in 2H26 the Key Watch Item; OW, $93 PT

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Carvana

Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 EPS Preview: See Overweight

Modest 2Q Beat, Driven by Delayed Price Acceleration; CVNA, CVNA US

Return to EBITDA/Unit Growth in 2H26 the Key Watch Price (13 Jul 26):$64.99

Item; OW, $93 PT Price Target (Dec-26):$93.00

See modest 2Q26 beat; 2H26 EBITDA/unit recovery key; setup compelling into Autos & Auto Parts

AC2Q26 print: Our 2Q26 EBITDA estimate is $785 mn vs. $765 mn prior (vs. BBG Rajat Gupta

consensus at $769 mn) with the increase primarily driven by higher non-GAAP (1-212) 622-6382

retail GPU of $3.5K vs $3.4K prior. Our unit and other GPU/SG&A moving parts rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

remain largely unchanged. Our 2H26 and 2027 estimates are also largely Jash Patwa

unchanged. The key debates going into the 2Q print relate to: 1) Retail GPU (1-212) 622-5472

moving parts – pricing and wholesale/retail spreads; 2) Other GPU, in light of the jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

May prime ABS deal; 3) growth run-rate exiting 2Q/entering 3Q; 4) off-lease Yash Beswala

supply inflection implications; 5) EBITDA/unit recovery in 2H26; and 6) new car (1-212) 622-0028

yash.beswala@jpmchase.com

initiatives and implications. Overall, we see an attractive setup into 2Q26 earnings, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

with investor growth expectations recalibrated to more reasonable levels relative

to 40%+ at the beginning of 2026, and line of sight on EBITDA/unit recovery as Key Changes (FYE Dec)

CVNA starts to comp prime APR reductions, tariff benefits, advertising pickup, Prev Cur Δ