Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Intercos S.p.A. (ICOS.MI)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Make Up Reported Growth (%) 5.7 6.8 5.7 5.7

Skin Care Reported Growth (%) (3.7) 0.5 8.9 8.9

Hair & Body Reported Growth (%) (16.9) 4.2 4.7 4.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Outsourcing gaining share within Beauty market RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Intercos expanding market share, particularly in Scale and mix driving faster margin expansion

skincare Larger than anticipated new Sales / 1,168

Margin expansion potential thanks to mix and customers/contracts Revenue 1,152 1,176

scale benefit Faster scaling-up of Skincare business (€, mn) 1,164

Scope for consolidation in a fragmented Value-accretive M&A

industry

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 180

EBITDA

Supply-chain disruption leading to loss of sales 170 182GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (€, mn)

& profits 177

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Macro pressures leading to customer caution, 0-10% China and India resulting in volatility in orders

0-10% Latin America Loss of key customers/contracts EBIT 122

0-10% UK Lack of operating leverage/efficiencies limiting (€, mn) 107 125

10-20% Mainland China margin expansion 119

10-20% North America

50-60% Europe ex UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 0.85

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 0.79 0.87

(€)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 88% 0.84

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1x

HF Sector Net Exposure 0.2% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.