Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 14, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MSigma Foods Sab De Cv | Latin America Ricardo L Alves

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Ricardo.Alves@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6238

Sigma Foods Sab De Cv (SIGMAFA.MX, SIGMAFA MM)

What’s Changed LatAm Food & Beverage | Mexico

Sigma Foods Sab De Cv (SIGMAFA.MX) From To Stock Rating Overweight

Bear Case M$13.00 M$12.50 Industry View No Rating

Price target M$21.00

Updated Components Shr price, close (Jul 10, 2026) M$16.12

EPS 52-Week Range M$19.53-13.30

Investment Thesis

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

EPS (US$)** 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.08

Prior EPS (US$)** - 0.07 0.08 0.08

Risk Reward for Sigma Foods Sab De Cv (SIGMAFA.MX) has

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

frameworkbeen updated

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

Estimate Changes. We are fine-tuning our Sigma Foods model to reflect our latest

expectations ahead of 2Q26e, while also updating macro and commodity forecasts.

Our 2026–2028 USD EBITDA estimates remain broadly unchanged (down -1%, on

average) as (i) slightly lower US sales and margins (reflecting deteriorating industry

conditions) and (ii) slightly unfavorable FX translation in Europe and Mexico

(stronger USD vs. prior model) are partially offset by slightly higher profitability in

Mexico. Importantly, our 2Q26 EBITDA estimate remains unchanged: higher Mexico

EBITDA margin on lower input costs offsets a weaker US on deteriorating scanner

data. Our Sigma PT is unchanged at M$21/shr: -2% lower 2027 net income (base

year for our multiple valuation) offset by a weaker YE-2027 MXN, which increases

the MXN value of our USD-based valuation.