Nordic Insurers – Northern Lights are Fading

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Nordic Insurers – Northern Lights are Fading

Foundation

July 14, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MInsurance | Europe Daniel Wilson-Omordia

Equity Analyst

Nordic Insurers – Northern Daniel.Wilson-Omordia@morganstanley.comHadley Cohen +44 20 7677-3618

Hadley.Cohen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3289

Lights are Fading Alexa Psillos, FASSA

Research Associate

Alexa.Psillos@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2384

Nordic P&C's quality premium has been shrinking and we expect

Insurance

further underperformance given elevated bond yields and fading Europe

pricing tailwinds. We initiate Sampo at EW and Gjensidige at Industry View In-Line

UW, and downgrade Tryg to UW. We prefer Sampo for its What’s Changed

broader platform, UK optionality and clearer catalysts. SampoRating Oyj (SAMPO.HE) FromNA ToEqual-weight

Price Target €0.00 €9.80

High quality may not be enough in the current macro backdrop. Nordic P&C

remains one of the best-in-class subsectors in European insurance, supported by Gjensidige Forsikring ASA

(GJFG.OL) From To

concentrated markets, disciplined players, high customer retention/penetration and Rating NA Underweight

high payout ratios. However, these same strengths also limit the scope for Price Target NKr 0.00 NKr 260.00

meaningful improvement: the markets are already mature and efficient. As a result, Tryg A/S (TRYG.CO) From To

the sector is bond-like – resilient in risk-off markets or falling rate environments, but Rating Equal-weight Underweight

less compelling while rates remain elevated and quality improves elsewhere in Price Target DKr 165.00 DKr 145.00

European insurance. With the subsector still trading at a >45% P/E premium to

wider European insurance, and all three names on broadly similar P/Es, we expect