Met Coal: Fundamentals still challenging, but...

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Met Coal: Fundamentals still challenging, but...

asinghe

guidance of 43-45Mt (100%); 3) Russia: we assume seaborne exports are stable at Analyst

dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com~65Mt due to ongoing logistical, financial and pricing challenges; Woodmac expects

+61-3-9242 6385

Russian exports to grow to 73Mt by 2030 (96Mt by 2035).

Sharon Ding

Analyst

Beyond 2030, the outlook becomes considerably less certain. Most forecast supply sharon.ding@ubs.com

growth is driven by brownfield expansions and restarts, yet reserve depletion +852-2971 6284

increasingly erodes output growth, particularly for premium HCC. New greenfield

Suxi Zheng, PhD

projects such as Eagle Downs, Winchester South, Nebo West and Lancewood become

increasingly important, but development remains challenged by Queensland royalties, suxi.zheng@ubs.com

permitting hurdles and capital discipline due to reduced margins over 2026-27. +852-3712 2601

Consequently, while near-term the market appears adequately supplied, longer-term

Alex Stansbury, CFA

the market is likely to become increasingly dependent on a limited pipeline of premium

HCC projects; as a result, we see potential for there to be a structural shortage of alex.stansbury@ubs.com

premium qualities over the next 5yrs. +1-212-882 0097

Elvis Liu

Demand: China continues down but India & rest of SE Asia more than offset

Associate Analyst

The demand outlook is increasingly defined by structural declines in China and elvis.liu@ubs.com

developed markets being offset by Indian and broader Asian growth. Near term, China +852-3712 3052

remains the key swing factor, with steel production proving more resilient than expected Ethan Hong

and Shanxi-related domestic supply disruptions temporarily lifting import requirements. Associate Analyst