Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 132

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Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 132

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 132

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

US-Iran attacks pause today Analyst

Iran launched new strikes against US bases yesterday (link) but attacks appear to have henri.patricot@ubs.com

stopped today and Qatari mediators are reportedly making a push for renewed +33-14-888 3033

diplomacy (link). The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed today that the Nayoung Kim

maritime threat in the Strait of Hormuz remains "severe" but that the southern route, Analyst

i.e. through Omani waters, remains available (link). nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

No improvement in Hormuz crossings Joshua Stone

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) shows no major improvement in Analyst

flows via Hormuz on Thursday as increased risk continues to deter some shipowners. Oil joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

and gas tanker crossings were up to 11 from 9, fairly balanced outbound/inbound

(Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). Oil on water in the Gulf has fallen very close to pre-conflict levels (Figure 12MidleEastGulfdailyoilonwater(Mb)). Josh Silverstein

Hence, any major increase in outflows would require a step-up in inbound tankers. Analyst

Crossings are still averaging ~13 so far in July but are below the mid-to-high 10s of late josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

June/early July levels and well below February's c.50 level. Estimated volumes exiting the

Gulf were stable at 4.7Mboe/d yesterday and have averaged 7.3Mboe/d in July vs. the Tom Allen

June average of 3.7Mboe/d and May's 1.3Mboe/d.