ASML Holding (ASML NA): Buy: From DRAM tailwinds to foundry upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

ASML Holding (ASML NA): Buy: From DRAM tailwinds to foundry upside

12 July 2026

ASML Holding (ASML NA) EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment

Buy: From DRAM tailwinds to foundry upside Netherlands

◆ Recent data points suggest a strengthening demand MAINTAIN BUY

backdrop with visibility now extending to 2028

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)

◆ We raise our WFE estimates and now model USD217bn

1883.00 1568.00 (+40% YoY) and USD261bn (+20% YoY) in 2027/28e

SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE◆ We raise ASML’s FY27/28e EBIT by 8%/25% and see upside

to consensus. New TP EUR1,883, up from EUR1,568 1602.80 +17.5%

(as of 09 Jul 2026)

Strong demand backdrop continues: ASML reports 2Q26 results on 15 July. Into MARKET DATA

Market cap (EURm) 622,123 Free float 98%

results, we stay constructive as visibility increasingly appears to be extending into 2028, Market cap (USDm) 711,086 BBG ASML NA

supported by AI-driven investment and strengthening advanced logic/foundry datapoints. 3m ADTV (USDm) 1,165 RIC ASML.AS

ASML’s strong DRAM exposure (c40% of FY26e system sales, HSBCe) means that it is FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

well placed to benefit from the strong DRAM WFE growth (+60% YoY in FY27e) we Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 24.71 33.01 45.49 56.72expect. That said, incremental upside risk to expectations may ultimately come from HSBC EPS (prev) 24.71 31.84 42.26 46.09

logic/foundry customers if capex momentum at key customers persists (TSMC/Intel, and Change (%) 0.0 3.7 7.7 23.1

Consensus EPS 24.91 31.82 43.86 52.34

potentially Samsung) and if EUV tool supply surprises positively. At results, we’ll focus on PE (x) 64.9 48.6 35.2 28.3

(A) demand trends into 2027 and visibility into 2028, (B) Low-NA EUV capacity expansion Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7