Australian Telecom Sector: 2H26e previews. Postpaid subs likely flat, ARPU solid, but watching risks from Enterprise dilution

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Australian Telecom Sector: 2H26e previews. Postpaid subs likely flat, ARPU solid, but watching risks from Enterprise dilution

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Australian Telecom Sector Equities

Australia2H26e previews. Postpaid subs likely flat, ARPU

solid, but watching risks from Enterprise dilution Telecommunications

Lucy Huang

Analyst

lucy.huang@ubs.com

2H26e results +61-2-9324 2253

TLS and TPG are due to report results in Aug. We expect earnings and DPS to largely Ailsa Lei

meet expectations but see potential for softening trends across the industry: i) Postpaid Analyst

net adds flattish as market has matured, with activity in Value end of market, ii) mobile ailsa.lei@ubs.com

price rises captured but potential dilution from Enterprise; and iii) Fixed Enterprise +61-2-9324 3181

remaining challenged. Despite this, there is potential upside from further cost-out and

productivity initiatives. We also watch for any churn impacts from latest TLS network

outage although feedback suggests only "tens of thousands" of services were

impacted, despite being nationwide. With all operators seeing network outages over

last 12mths, we see potential for downside risk from further regulatory intervention.

Mobile price hikes continue with Vodafone raising front book +$5

Earlier this month, Vodafone has followed peers in raising Postpaid prices +$5/mth

(+9% yoy) but only for front book so far vs TLS +$4/mth in May (+6%), Optus +$5/mth

in June (+9%). Looking ahead, we watch for any indicators of rising mobile churn/

down-trading given our recent UBS Evidence Lab Survey showed sharp declines in brand

perceptions across all operators and metrics for the first time in 6yrs, despite churn levels

still low. For now, we remain comfortable that industry can continue to extract CPI-type