Henderson Land Development 1H26 Earnings Preview: Accelerating Farmland Resumption in 2H26

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Henderson Land Development 1H26 Earnings Preview: Accelerating Farmland Resumption in 2H26

6 2.05 5 1.78

resumption gains in 2H26 (resumption price: HK$1,032 psf vs. average acquisition cost 12/28E 2.24 2.18 -3 2.34

of HK$235 psf). As of Dec 2025, Henderson possessed 5.8mn sq ft of farmland within

the San Tin. Given that the current resumption area accounts for 22% of the total Mark Leung

development area of the San Tin Technopole, we estimate that 1.3mn sq ft of Analyst

mark.leung@ubs.comHenderson's farmland will be resumed in 2H26 (5.8mn sq ft × 22%), translating into

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compensation proceeds of approximately HK$1.3bn. Meanwhile, we expect the pace of

farmland resumption to pick up further in 2027-28, given that the Northern Metropolis John Lam, CFA

was the first stop during the Chinese State Council executive's recent visit to Hong Analyst

john-za.lam@ubs.comKong, reflecting the project's high priority and strategic importance from the central

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government's perspective.

Ben Ho

Positive momentum for both IFC mall and office Associate Analyst

ben.ho@ubs.com

We expect Henderson to continue benefiting from the recent recovery in the Central +852-3712 2819

office market. In particular, we expect its IFC office portfolio to achieve positive teens

rental reversion in 2027, supported by the recent increase in spot rents. However, its

decentralised office portfolio is still expected to report negative rental reversion of 10-

15% in 1H26. We also expect the remaining 30% of Central Yard Phase 1 office space

to be leased by early 2027. On the retail side, tenant sales at both IFC Mall and its

suburban malls have remained strong, posting YoY growth of 20-30% and 8-9%,

respectively. We expect IFC Mall's rental reversion to potentially return to positive