China Travel, Lodging and Leisure: Virtual tour takeaways: China outbound travel 2H26 outlook

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China Travel, Lodging and Leisure: Virtual tour takeaways: China outbound travel 2H26 outlook

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesChina Travel, Lodging and Leisure

Virtual tour takeaways: China outbound travel China

2H26 outlook Leisure Goods & Services

Xin Chen

Analyst

xin.chen@ubs.com

Positive outlook on long-haul travel; structural shift in short-haul destinations +86-21-3866 8864

We invited an expert with over 10 years' experience in the outbound travel industry to Ingrid Zhang

join our virtual tour. As per the expert: 1) Long-haul travel to Europe has largely Analyst

recovered to pre-Covid levels in 1H26, with summer seat capacity expected to grow S1460517080003

c20% YoY, mainly due to Chinese airlines' cost advantages as they can fly over Russian ingrid.zhang@ubs.com

airspace; 2) By destination, short-haul markets show stark divergence: Japan faces +86-21-3866 8853

severe geopolitical headwinds with capacity dropping below 50% of normal levels, Beini Du

while Korea and Thailand are capturing the spillover demand; 3) The industry is Associate

experiencing a structural shift from low-end large group tours to customized small S1460525090002

group/independent tours; 4) inbound travel: majority come from Asia market (Japan, betty-za.du@ubs.com

Korea, India, and etc.); facing a shortage of foreign-language tour guides. +86-213-866 8753

Jarrod Castle, CFA

Pressure lingers on Japan travel; Korea benefits from spillover demand Analyst

As per the expert: 1) Japan travel faces a sharp decline following political frictions, with jarrod.castle@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8883

flight capacity dropping below 50% of normal levels and group tours nearly suspended;

2) The recent 5x surge in Japan's single-entry visa fee (to JPY 15,000) and doubled Robin M. Farley