California Resources Corporation: 2Q26 Earnings Preview - The Golden Valley Opportunity

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California Resources Corporation: 2Q26 Earnings Preview - The Golden Valley Opportunity

0 0.85

FY26 capex forecast and view this as an activity pull forward, as we see the Q2E 1.49 1.30 -13 1.71

potential for CRC to harvest these capital efficiencies and maintain the same Q3E 1.48 1.15 -22 1.57

program. Should oil prices rise vs. our $75/bbl Brent forecast for FY27, however, Q4E 1.20 1.10 -9 1.27

CRC could elect to maintain its current pace and elect to grow. 12/26E 5.05 4.44 -12 5.73

12/27E 7.04 5.57 -21 4.16

Power. In partnership with Beacon Data Centers, CRC is planning to develop the 12/28E 9.10 8.66 -5 6.49

Golden Valley Technology Hub, a data center campus that will pull ~275MW of

Josh Silverstein

power from CRC's Elk Hills Power Plant. This would be a project built on CRC land, Analyst

using CRC gas to power the plant, and over time would likely attach CCS to drive a josh.silverstein@ubs.com

pricing premium. The project is currently in early stages, with it needing to +1-212-713 3513

complete permitting/environmental review requirements before construction can William Barber

begin, and CRC is leading the charge here. Beyond the initial 275MW, the campus Associate Analyst

would then look to scale with ~2GW of existing local baseload power. This opens william.barber@ubs.com

up another market both for CRC's gas and its CCS capabilities. +1-212-713 5553

Updating Estimates and PT. We lowered our FY26/FY27 WTI forecast to $79/ Peyton Dorne

$71/bbl and our FY26 HH forecast to $3.75. As a result, our FY26/FY27 Adj. Analyst

peyton.dorne@ubs.com

EBITDAX forecasts decrease by 4%/8% to $1,352/$1,594mm. We maintain our

+1-212-713 4359

4.5x multiple, and our PT decreases from $78 to $70.

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E