UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26 Preview: We See A Balanced Upside/Downside Skew

研报英文原文证据摘录

UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26 Preview: We See A Balanced Upside/Downside Skew

Steven Madden Ltd UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: How much will the global footwear industry grow?

We expect it to rise at a normalized low- to mid-single-digit pace, highly skewed to sports footwear.

Athleisure should continue driving this category at a compelling mid to high-single-digit rate,

underpinned by prevailing themes like casualization and healthy lifestyles. SHOO has gradually

pivoted its portfolio into more casual styles, which implies it could capture part of this rising demand.

Q: Can Steve Madden drive revenue growth in a lackluster US spending environment?

Yes. We anticipate SHOO's revenue rises ~12.5% y/y in FY26E as SHOO benefits from solid US

DTC trends for its Steve Madden brand as well as benefit from annualizing its acquisition of the Kurt

Geiger brand. At the same time, we expect pressured trends within Steve Madden's legacy wholesale

business, driven by price increase resistance from SHOO's private label and Off-Price channel

partners. Our long term outlook forecasts total SHOO sales rise at a ~7% CAGR annually post FY26E.

Q: What is SHOO's long term operating margin opportunity?

We think FY26 margins expand 120 bps to 8.1% vs. 6.9% in FY25. We expect this to be driven by mix

shifts to SHOO's higher margin Kurt Geiger brand and modest tariff recapture in 2H26. Our LT

outlook forecasts that operating margins will expand over time and level out in the LDD% range.

UBS VIEW We believe SHOO has multiple LT global growth opportunities given its position as a leader within the

women's fashion footwear industry. Plus, we see solid potential for SHOO to expand its newly