AIA Group (1299.HK): 1H26 Preview: VoNB +14% YoY on AER Despite Challenging Base Effects; OPAT per share +11% YoY

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AIA Group (1299.HK): 1H26 Preview: VoNB +14% YoY on AER Despite Challenging Base Effects; OPAT per share +11% YoY

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13 Jul 2026 20:38:41 ET │ 11 pages

AIA Group (1299.HK)

1H26 Preview: VoNB +14% YoY on AER Despite Challenging Base

Effects; OPAT per share +11% YoY

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (13 Jul 26 16:10) HK$72.40 We expect AIA to release 1H26 interim results on August 20th. We

Target price HK$103.00 estimate AIA’s group VoNB to increase by a still decent 14% yoy (on AER

basis) to US$3,232mn. We anticipate 19%/13% yoy VoNB expansion from Expected share price return 42.3%

CN/HK business in 1H26E on CER, moderately decelerating from 1Q26 Expected dividend yield 3.0%

amid more challenging base effects in 2Q26, while SG/MY/TH should see Expected total return 45.2%

improving business momentum in 2Q26. OPAT growth is estimated at 9% Market Cap HK$749,097M

yoy in 1H26E with OPAT per share up 11% yoy after factoring in buybacks; US$95,510M

interim DPS is likely to rise 12% yoy accordingly. EV is estimated to grow

6% hoh in 1H26E with positive investment and operating variances.

Michelle Ma, CFAACVoNB 1H26 +14% yoy on AER despite challenging base in CN & HK in 2Q26 – For

+852-2501-27231H26E, we expect overall VoNB to increase by 14% yoy on AER basis to

michelle.ma@citi.comUS$3,232mn. Mainland China. We estimate AIA China to see VoNB growth of 19%

yoy on CER basis (or 26% yoy on AER basis), decelerating from the 26% yoy growth in Amy Jy Chen

1Q26 amid a much higher base for comparison in 2Q26. Rmb appreciated against amy.jy.chen@citi.com

USD by 6% yoy in 1H26. Hong Kong. We expect VoNB in Hong Kong to expand 13%

yoy on CER in 1H26E, stepping down from the 21% yoy hike in 1Q26, given a more

challenging base in 2Q25 driven by the accelerated sales before the introduction of