CH Auto; 2Q Preview (D/G SAIC & GAC to UW), Humanoid Robots in the US, Long Hitachi Conviction Call Feedback, Meta & Google Buy side Bars: APAC Industrial & Auto Sector Specialist Sales Commentary Auto & EV - Equipment - Machinery - F&E&C - A&D

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CH Auto; 2Q Preview (D/G SAIC & GAC to UW), Humanoid Robots in the US, Long Hitachi Conviction Call Feedback, Meta & Google Buy side Bars: APAC Industrial & Auto Sector Specialist Sales Commentary Auto & EV - Equipment - Machinery - F&E&C - A&D

terest in physical AI, we update our U.S. humanoid robotics outlook, now projecting production to ramp

from under 6k units in 2026E to ~300k by 2030E, implying a humanoid BOM scaling above $10bn. U.S. demand, driven by

labor shortages and augmentation, is expected to outpace supply through 2030, with a ~$4bn actuation & motion TAM and ~

$500M obtainable revenue for our coverage—potentially achievable via a single large OEM content win.

• Actuation architecture (rotary vs. linear, reducer types, integration) will determine content per unit and which

suppliers win. Timken is best positioned across the value chain, followed by Regal Rexnord and Allient, each benefiting from

different OEM engineering choices. Patent activity is surging, signaling rapid innovation and monetization potential, with our

coverage acting as “picks & shovels” for U.S. actuation content. We see further upside if capacity buildouts accelerate or a

major OEM win materializes.

• Investor Feedback: Notemany investors are long-biased in the sector with the upcoming Tesla Optimus 2 launch event,

capital events in China (key lead humanoid robot IPOs), and expected acceleration of humanoid robot adoption in

manufacturing lines (auto OEMs and semiconductor lines) into 2027. Investors see the best value capture at key component

makers at the early stage of the humanoid robot adoption cycle, with most focus on key Tesla supply chain names in China

(Hengli), China reducer maker Leader Harmonious Drive for its dominance/scale, and HMC/Hyundai Mobis for BD stake