2Q26 Results Due After Close on 28th July

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Results Due After Close on 28th July

Inwit (INW IM)

Equity Research

July 14, 2026

The Long View: Inwit

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

2030 targets are theoretically underpinned by tenancy growth and an

Upside : Downside

uptake in Smart Infrastructure services, despite a challenging MNO 12 2.48 : 1

backdrop. Downside risks include confirmation of MSA termination from

SCMN, and risk to TIM MSA termination from 2030. Upside potential

10 10 (+55%)

is driven by an improving market backdrop, as risks of MSA contract

termination rolls off and higher demand for INWIT's core and new services 9

drives ROIC higher. 8

7 7 (+9%)

5 5 (-22%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€7, +9% €10, +55% €5, -22%

Against a challenged customer backdrop, we see An improving Italian MNO market drives an Vodafone+Fastweb are successful in

INWIT's revenue CAGR at ~3% 2025-30 to the up-tick in investment from anchor tenants terminating the MSA by 2028, which leads to

low end of its guidance, driven by mandatory drives MSA volumes higher while OLOs benefit a reduction of MSA revenues of ~€200m by

Anchor Tenant and OLO additions, inflation from accelerating densification and coverage 2030 and drives EBITDAaL 20% lower and a

escalators, and a steady ramp up in Smart demand. Significant relief rally helps drive the cancellation of dividend while leverage is brought

Infrastructure services. Improving tenancy ratio shares back to levels close to pre 3Q25 under control. Assume TIM maintains its MSA

and lease cost efficiencies deliver EBITDAaL guidance cut, albeit with INW still operating until 2030 as the main anchor tenant before a

margins of ~78% by 2030. in a low inflation and challenging investment similar transition off the platform.

environment.