Snam: Solid and well managed... but well priced in too

研报英文原文证据摘录

Snam: Solid and well managed... but well priced in too

Javier Garrido AC Europe Equity Research

(34-91) 516-1557 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Snam operates under a transparent regulatory framework, based

on principles of continuity, with incentivised capex that is

relatively insensitive to economic growth in the medium term,

limited exposure to volumes and interest rates that are formally

passed through every 3 years and inflation annually. We see

Snam as a relative safe haven in an uncertain economic

environment since, for Italian gas, investments are linked to

renewals and the transformation of the country into a gas hub,

rather than to demand growth. However, in the next few months

YTD 1m 3m 12m we expect some uncertainty on the remuneration in the context

Abs 9.1% -3.1% -9.2% 24.0% of the beginning of the final totex (ROSS) model as well as the

Rel -4.7% -5.7% -6.1% -2.6%

start of a new WACC regulatory period.

Company Data

Valuation

Shares O/S (mn) 3,361

52-week range (€) 6.87-4.97 We set our price target by taking the average of a RAB-based

Market cap ($ mn) 23,710.16 SOTP valuation and a dividend discount model.

Exchange rate 0.88

Free float (%) 61.1%

3M ADV (mn) 5.84 Performance Drivers

3M ADV ($ mn) 42.7

Volatility (90 Day) 19

Index SX6P Index

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 6|12|3

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

€ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 3,885 4,095 4,250 4,440

Adj. EBITDA 2,969 3,149 3,287 3,452

Adj. EBIT 1,824 2,008 2,066 2,166

Adj. net income 1,367 1,452 1,477 1,561

Adj. EPS 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.47

BBG EPS 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.46

Cashflow from operations 2,709 2,904 2,643 2,776

FCFF 252 246 526 (36)

Margins and Growth