Polish Food Retail: Navigating continued challenges in 2Q26: d/g Zabka to Neutral, maintain UW on Dino

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Polish Food Retail: Navigating continued challenges in 2Q26: d/g Zabka to Neutral, maintain UW on Dino

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

14 July 2026

Polish Food Retail

Navigating continued challenges in 2Q26: d/g Zabka to

Neutral, maintain UW on Dino

We see a tough operating environment for Polish food retailers heading into the CEEMEA Consumer

AC2Q26 reporting: weak domestic retail sales momentum (here and here), food CPI Elena Jouronova, CFA

slipping into deflationary territory (-0.3% in June), deflation in the fresh category (971) 4561-2010

and unfavorable Easter calendar collectively point to another quarter of muted LFL elena.jouronova@jpmorgan.com

trends, with a modest mitigation from warmer weather. Biedronka (Jeronimo Anastasia Tikhonova

Martins OW, AFL, covered by Borja Olcese) - the market leader and our preferred (44-20) 3493-8007

exposure - is forecast to deliver a negative 1.5% LFL (2Q26 preview is here) while anastasia.tikhonova@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

still defending profitability (+8bps y/y EBITDA margin JPMe). For Dino, in

contrast, we anticipate more pronounced pressure, with both LFLs and margins

deteriorating y/y and reiterate our UW rating, decreasing our Dec-27 PT by 10%

to PLN 28/share. Zabka, by contrast, should benefit from its convenience-led

proposition and comparatively supportive weather, driving sequential LFL

acceleration and a broadly stable Adj. EBITDA margin y/y, keeping it on track to

meet FY26 margin guidance. However, with Zabka’s shares up 21% YTD,

outperforming JMT and DNP by a wide margin, in our view, stronger operating and

earnings momentum is already duly reflected in the valuation (22-43% premium

on 2028E P/E). As a result, despite raising our Dec-27 PT by 17% on improved