Key Beneficiary of Higher Vols & Prices from EU Safeguards: Upgrade to Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Key Beneficiary of Higher Vols & Prices from EU Safeguards: Upgrade to Buy

EUROPE | European Steel

Salzgitter EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

RATING | TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEKey Beneficiary of Higher Vols & Prices from

RATING BUY (HOLD)EU Safeguards: Upgrade to Buy

PRICE €51.05^

SZG is a key beneficiary of more protectionist EU steel quotas, higher EU

steel prices and Germany's infrastructure spending from 2027 onwards PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €66.00 (€55.00) | +29%

(76% sales in Europe with 42% in Germany). We see potential for another 52W HIGH-LOW €67.60 - €20.34

2026 EBITDA guidance upgrade, and at >€1bn EBITDA in 2027 are 18% FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 60.6% | 10.05

ahead of cons. We raise our PT to €66 (4.4x 2027E EV/EBITDA) and upgrade MARKET CAP €2.8B | $3.2B

to Buy, for SZG earnings leverage to higher EU steel prices and better steel TICKER SZG GR ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

mill operating rates in 2027. noted.

SZG is a key beneficiary of EU steel safeguards: With 76% sales in Europe (42% Germany), FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

SZG is a key beneficiary of more protectionist EU steel quotas, higher EU steel prices and 2026 2027 2026 2027

Germany's infrastructure spending from 2027 onwards. SZG earnings are the most levered REV* +2% +4% +1% +2%

to higher steel pricing, and will also benefit from higher operating rates & volumes at its mills

EBITDA <1% +12% +5% +18%

(JEFe: every +5% vols is +€60m to EBITDA in steel production division). With 5.7mT of steel

shipments in 2027, we estimate every +€50/t across steel prices is worth +€285m EBITDA or +

2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

€185m excl approx 35% longer term contracts (i.e. +28% / +18% to JEFe €1bn EBITDA in 2027).

EBITDA 195.9 165.2 164.8 200.0 726.6