LatAm Octant #25 | LatAm Cement’s Next Layer

研报英文原文证据摘录

LatAm Octant #25 | LatAm Cement’s Next Layer

rformance (YTD, indexed)

Brazil: Long live the Minha Casa, Minha Vida programme. Brazil features the largest LatAm 140130• 120

cement market, and for the past 2-3 years, demand has been propped by the government’s 110

‘Minha Casa, Minha Vida’ housing subsidy programme. Indeed, 1H26 cement demand run-rate 10090

is close to the 2014 peak. Looking ahead, we see some risk of a deceleration in cement demand 8070

growth post the Oct-26 elections, given elevated interest rates, a weakening economy, and 08-Jan-26 15-Jan-26 23-Jan-26 30-Jan-26 06-Feb-26 13-Feb-26 23-Feb-26 02-Mar-26 09-Mar-26 16-Mar-26 23-Mar-26 30-Mar-26 07-Apr-26 14-Apr-26 21-Apr-26 28-Apr-26 05-May-26 12-May-26 19-May-26 27-May-26 03-Jun-26 10-Jun-26 17-Jun-26 25-Jun-26 02-Jul-26 10-Jul-26

fiscal uncertainties. Cost inflation for cement players remains high, and we believe that this Cemex (NC) Loma Negra (NC) Cementos Argos MSCI LatAm

could put some pressure on margins in the coming quarters. .Source: FactSet

Colombia: New government policies? Colombia’s cement dispatches have been growing at•

c5% pa in 2025/1H26 but the push of the incoming De la Espriella administration to cut

fiscal deficit has raised question marks over cement demand growth near term. Indeed, we

see a material deceleration in cement dispatches in 2027. We believe that attracting private

investment to unlock some of the large infrastructure projects will be key to boost cement

demand in the coming years.

Mexico: Beyond USMCA uncertainties. Mexico features LatAm’s second-largest cement•

market. After a weak 2024-25, cement dispatches are up c5% YTD, led by self-construction

and social programs (eg, rural roads), while formal infrastructure remains soft. Despite the