Dubai Taxi Company PJSC | EEMEA Model Update

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Dubai Taxi Company PJSC | EEMEA Model Update

June, the rebound was slower than the market had anticipated. The weakness EV/EBIT** 16.2 24.3 14.3 12.2

remains concentrated in the taxi business, reflecting both lower trip volumes and a DPS (AED) 0.12 0.02 0.10 0.13

Div yld (%) 4.7 1.0 4.7 6.0

less favourable mix, including fewer airport journeys and shorter average trip FCF yld ratio (%)** 4.3 1.9 2.8 4.4

distances. By contrast, bus and bike operations remain comparatively resilient given Net debt (AED mn)* 738 776 768 756

Net debt/EBITDA** 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.0

their contracted revenue base, with the bike segment also benefiting from RNOA (%)** 39.8 21.7 33.7 36.6

continued expansion. While we do not include the outstanding waiver in our ROE (%)** 86.7 40.4 74.8 74.0

estimates, any receipt would provide downside protection but would not alter the Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

weaker underlying demand backdrop in 2Q. Against this backdrop, we now forecast ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

2Q revenue of AED503m, EBITDA of AED75m and net profit of AED13m, versus * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

AED553m/AED128m/AED57m previously. The earnings downgrade is driven

primarily by negative operating leverage: we cut revenue by ~AED50m, while cash

direct costs remain broadly unchanged at ~AED397m, resulting in an EBITDA margin

of 15.0% versus 23.2% previously. Looking ahead, we model 3Q broadly back to 1Q

levels, with the pace of airport traffic normalisation and expat demand remaining

the key swing factors. Additional disclosure around National Taxi on the upcoming Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with