2Q26 Preview: Show Us the Bots

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: Show Us the Bots

IdeaMExhibit 2: Modestly Increasing Auto Delivery Forecasts

2,700 Prior Forecast Current Forecast 2,635 2,650

2,500

2,407

2,393

(000s) 2,300 2,138

2,096

Deliveries 1,9002,100 1,855

1,818

1,670

1,700

1,567

1,500

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

2) Pulse Check on Autonomy.

TSLA FSD hit a key autonomy milestone in 2Q; can the momentum continue? We

look to an update on Unsupervised FSD, v15 rollout, and global approval. Based

on Tesla's public tracker, FSD passed the 10bn miles driven milestone on May 3rd,

weeks ahead of expectations as FSD miles accelerated. This represents an important

milestone on Tesla's path toward Unsupervised FSD, alongside the consequential

task of scaling an unsupervised robotaxi fleet. Per our assumptions, Tesla owners

are now driving ~26.7mn miles/day with FSD (up from 18.5m miles/day in April).

We continue to track this metric as it has bearings on FSD adoption (both via new

subscribers and existing subscribers using the technology more frequently) which at

a ~90% GM can uplift profitability and give credence to Tesla's autonomous tech as

it scales its unsupervised robotaxi fleet, though would note that Elon Musk has

pushed timelines for unsupervised FSD for consumer TSLA vehicles to 4Q26 at the

earliest, per the 1Q earnings call. We also wait for an update on FSD v15, which is

seen as a pivotal model to enable scaled unsupervised robotaxi and personal

unsupervised FSD. Finally, we're watching for China and broader EU approval after

a handful of European countries approved the tech within the quarter.

In a year when capex is set to more than double and FCF is flipping negative, we

believe Tesla's ability to demonstrate tangible progress in scaling unsupervised