Earnings preview and catalysts for 2Q26 analyst meeting

研报英文原文证据摘录

Earnings preview and catalysts for 2Q26 analyst meeting

Idea

July 13, 2026 06:02 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+MTSMC | Asia Pacific Charlie Chan

Equity Analyst

Earnings preview and catalysts Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.comDaniel Yen, CFA +886 2 2730-1725

Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863

for 2Q26 analyst meeting Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

We suggest accumulating the stock given potential for full-year Equity Analyst

Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7310

2026 guidance to be raised.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

What and when is the catalyst? TSMC will host its 2Q26 analyst meeting on July Tiffany Yeh

16. In TSMC: Domination in leading-edge foundry continues; OW (29 June 2026), we Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com +886 2 7712-3032

noted that TSMC may lift 2026e revenue guidance to close to 40% Y/Y growth and Lucas Wang

raise capex to US$56bn, the high end of its initial US$52-56bn range. Looking ahead Research Associate

Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2875

to 3Q26, we forecast revenue to be up in the low to mid-teens Q/Q given strong

demand in both 3nm and 2nm products. The margin should improve further Q/Q, in Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Henry Zhao

our view, with better utilization rate, but higher costs and depreciation are potential Research Associate

offsets. See our preview and key questions to ask. Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731

Ethan Jia

What are the potential outcomes for this event? Research Associate

Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2287

• Scenario 1: TSMC guides for 3Q26 revenue to be up 15% Q/Q in USD, full-

year revenue growth target raised to ~40% Y/Y, 3Q gross margin to be

~70%. 2026 full-year capex raised to US$60bn, and 2024-2029 five-year AI

semi revenue CAGR is raised to 80%.