Quick Take: Nippon Paint make a €7.5bn offer for Akzo Deco - Possible after the Axalta deal, but not at this price or in 2026

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Quick Take: Nippon Paint make a €7.5bn offer for Akzo Deco - Possible after the Axalta deal, but not at this price or in 2026

13 July 2026

James Hooper

+44 20 7676 6995

European Chemicals james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com

Akzo Nobel NV Sebastien Afoy

+44 207 762 1032

Rating sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Specialist Sales

Price Target James Brady

+44 20 7762 5272

AKZA.NA 59.00 EUR james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

Quick Take: Nippon Paint make a €7.5bn offer for Akzo Deco -

Possible after the Axalta deal, but not at this price or in 2026

Overnight Nippon Paint (not covered) confirmed press reports of a €7.5bn offer for Akzo

Close Date 10 Jul 2026

Nobel Decorative Paints (Akzo Deco). We believe a sale of Akzo Deco after the Axalta (not

AKZA.NA Close Price (EUR) 57.40

covered) merger could make strategic sense, as the synergies with Axalta are likely to be more

Price Target (EUR) 59.00

concentrated in the Coatings and Corporate elements of Akzo. However, the €7.5bn offer

Upside/(Downside) 3%

implies multiples of 11.6x 25A EBITDA and 10.8x 2026 BernE EBITDA, which we believe

52-Week Range 67.64/46.18

undervalues Akzo Deco relative to historical precedents, averaging 12.7x (Exhibit 1). With

EDME 1,593.41

Nippon Paint having to stretch their leverage to afford the €7.5bn offer (Exhibit 2), making an

FYE Dec

equity raise likely for a higher bid, and negotiations constrained by the terms of the Akzo-Axalta

Div Yield 3.4%

merger agreement, we believe Akzo shareholders would have to wait to realise value for Deco.

Market Cap (EUR) (M) 9,821

But it is certainly possible later in the decade.

EV (EUR) (M) 13,071

Nippon Paint’s bid structure makes more sense for all parties than their joint offer Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M