Leading the Shift in China’s Snack Retail; Initiate at Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Leading the Shift in China’s Snack Retail; Initiate at Buy

Busy Ming Group Co., Ltd (1768 HK)

Equity Research

July 13, 2026

Executive Summary

We initiate coverage of Busy Ming Group with a Buy rating and PT at HKD445. We believe value

retailers for snacks and beverages would continue to gain market share amid channel shifting in

China’s F&B industry. Busy Ming ranks No. 1 among China’s value snack and beverage retailers, with

a 44% market share by GMV in 2025 (CIC data). It fulfills consumers' demand for both variety (each

store >=1,800 SKUs, ~34% customized with producers/ brand owners) and affordability (value-for-

money pricing, ~25% lower than comparable products in supermarket channels).

The key points of our investment thesis are as below. The key differentiation: We factor in a faster

near-term store opening pace, with a more cautious margin improvement trend, as we believe scale,

turnover and supply chain efficiency is the current priority during expansion.

Store expansion would serve as the key growth driver. The snack value retail industry•

has developed rapidly in recent years, reaching ~50,000 stores in 2025 (JEFest), with Busy

Ming ranking No. 1 at 21,948 stores. It delivers strong value-for-money to consumers

through product customization/ innovation, along with a joyful offline shopping experience

in snacks and beverages. Based on store density per mn people, we believe Busy Ming has

further expansion potential in South/ East/ Southwest regions as brand equity and customer

engagement strengthen, in addition to LT penetration in North China to broaden population

coverage. Our base case projection in industry store potential is ~80.8k (3-5 years) and

~36.6k stores for Busy Ming.

We expect a stable same-store GMV trend.