7 Straight Months [Chase Consumer Spending Data], DG Raising #s, HSY Preview, Macau GGR [Still Unexciting]: US Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

研报英文原文证据摘录

7 Straight Months [Chase Consumer Spending Data], DG Raising #s, HSY Preview, Macau GGR [Still Unexciting]: US Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbriggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 13 July 2026

7 Straight Months [Chase Consumer Spending Data], DG Raising #s,

HSY Preview, Macau GGR [Still Unexciting]

Briggs Barton

+1 212 622 2677

briggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

MORNING UPDATE

• Chase Spending Data — Shows a resilient Consumer w/ Discretionary Spending accelerating across all income cohorts

and the macro wallet math improving incrementally into 2H. 7 straight months of spending accelerations now… here

• DG Raising #s — Matt raises ests following mgmt access/fieldwork [Q2 comps to +3.0% vs st +2.5% and we see upside

pot’l to that] and runs through the bull case math of $8.00/$9.20 FY26/27 EPS vs his raised $7.49/8.39 here

• HSY Preview — Widening price gaps pressure volume share, just as coca futures go cuckoo [again] - thoughts on the

setup from Tom Palmer here

• Macau Gaming [GGR Update] — Still unexciting and July week 2 continues to suggest downside to monthly estimates

here

DETAILED COMMENTARY

Chase Consumer Spending Data - 7 Straight Months of Acceleration

M. Boss provides an update June Chase Data which looks strong – June was a seventh consecutive month of Total

Consumer Spending acceleration [+5.7% vs May +5.3%] and Discretionary Spending accelerating +110bps to +6.1% YoY,

driven by improvements at all income cohorts.

Early July discretionary spend also accelerated sequentially despite a noisy calendar during the first week and July wk2

apparel brick/mortar traffic already rebounding based on the teams private company access.