Remy Cointreau SA: Q127 Preview: Cognac to outperform L&S; Americas and China still weighing on growth

研报英文原文证据摘录

Remy Cointreau SA: Q127 Preview: Cognac to outperform L&S; Americas and China still weighing on growth

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7123 13 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We remain cautious on RCO in the context of potential further

downside earnings risk if the expected H2 sales rebound does

not materialise given the weak backdrop in key end markets

including the US. While cognac is a structurally appealing

category vs other spirits segments (supply/ageing constraints

and oligopolistic market structure), it is also highly cyclical and

prone to sharp contractions. After seeing very soft demand for

the category in the US in FY24-26 remaining the weakest in

Spirits, and ongoing negative depletions, we believe the US is

YTD 1m 3m 12m unlikely to materially recover in 2026. We are concerned about

Abs 18.7% -0.1% 9.8% -23.0% the inadequacy of the US portfolio, which was crafted for a

Rel 10.1% -4.1% 5.1% -39.2%

premiumising market, leaving the risk of price cuts or market

Company Data share losses. China remains a key risk given persistent demand

Shares O/S (mn) 50 weakness, downtrading and unhelpful regulatory

52-week range (€) 62.35-34.24 developments, which will be difficult to offset in the current

Market cap ($ mn) 2,504.68

Exchange rate 0.88 environment. RCO will need to maintain A&P spend in order to

Free float (%) 40.4% protect brand relevance while peers lower prices in the US,

3M ADV (mn) 0.07 leaving downside to margin expectations. RCO remains most at

3M ADV ($ mn) 3.5

Volatility (90 Day) 36 risk of valuation pressure in periods of Spirits softness, in

Index MSCI Europe addition to potential further downside earnings risk.